World food commodity prices fall in January as sugar, vegetable oils decline – FAO

Global food commodity prices fell in January, led by sharp declines in sugar and vegetable oils, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Friday (February 7).

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in a basket of internationally traded food commodities, averaged 124.9 points in January against 127.0 in December. Despite the monthly decline, the index remained 6.2% higher than a year earlier but was still 22% below its March 2022 peak.

Sugar prices fell 6.8% from the previous month and 18.5% on the year. The drop was largely attributed to improved global supply prospects, thanks in part to favourable weather in Brazil and India resuming sugar exports.

Vegetable oil prices declined 5.6% last month, as global palm and rapeseed oil prices dropped while soy and sunflower oil quotations remained stable. Despite the January fall, the index was still up 24.9% on the year. Meat prices also fell, shedding 1.7% in January.

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Dairy prices rose 2.4% month-on-month and 20.4% year-on-year, led by a monthly surge in cheese quotations, which outweighed declines in butter and milk powder prices.

In a separate report, the FAO trimmed its forecast for global cereal production in 2024 to 2.840 billion against a previously given 2.841 billion. The revision was due primarily to the cut in estimates for U.S. maize production.

The winter wheat planting season in the northern hemisphere concluded in January, with increased sowings in France, Germany and the United Kingdom, while Russia saw a decline due to weather conditions, FAO said.

Maize harvests in the southern hemisphere will begin in the second quarter, with improved yields expected in Argentina and Brazil. High maize prices have driven increased plantings in South Africa.

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FAO raised its forecast for world cereal utilisation in 2024/25 by 0.9% to 2.869 billion tonnes, while global cereal stocks were expected to decline 2.2% by the close of seasons in 2025, hit by the contraction in U.S. maize stocks.

International trade in cereals in 2024/25 is forecast to contract by 5.6% compared to the previous year to 483.5 million tonnes, largely due to lower demand from China for barley, maize and wheat.