October 18, 2024 Economic and Housing Market Update

October 18, 2024

• The Realtor.com® economics team video update gives you the relevant economic and real estate information you need to know each week every Friday to navigate the housing market as a homebuyer, home seller, or industry professional.
• For the week ending Friday October 18, Chief Economist Danielle Hale highlights how key data continue to underscore the resilience of the U.S. economy. Retail sales ticked up, highlighting the willingness of consumers to spend while jobless claims remain low, pointing to favorable conditions for workers.
• With little change in the economic picture, 10-year yields continue to hover around 4%. But mortgage rates extended last week’s surge as investors calibrated for the stronger jobs and inflation data. The 30-year fixed climbed to 6.44%–its highest in roughly 2 months.  
• Mortgage applications for home purchases took a step back in the face of higher rates, but remained above year ago pace for a 4th straight week, indicating some improvement in homebuyer demand. 
• Although new construction activity slowed in September, homebuilder confidence bumped higher in October for a second month as builders reported improvements in current and expected sales conditions. 
• A better outlook helped drive single-family home permits to a 5-month high even though total permits fell. Importantly, total housing completions were up nearly 15% from a year ago with gains in both single- and multi-family–meaning more move-in ready options for both home shoppers and renters.
• The increase in multi-family supply helped hold rents back. A Realtor.com report by Jiayi Xu found that rents dipped by half a percent from a year ago overall. Nationally, rents are not far off peak-level, but regional trends vary with big cities and the Midwest generally seeing gains while rents are softer in the South.
• In fact, rents in New York City continued to climb overall and in all boroughs other than Manhattan.
• In the for-sale housing market, weekly data from Realtor.com compiled by Hannah Jones generally showed more steadiness. Of note, home prices were flat after 16 weeks of mild declines. But time on market and active listings were very similar to last week. The new listings data saw a surprising dip that we’re investigating further, but it seems likely that Hurricane Milton disrupted new listing activity in many areas.
• The seasonal best time to buy has passed nationwide, but conditions are still relatively favorable for buyers. Further, in Seattle, next week is the best week while in several major markets, including Los Angeles, Houston, and Minneapolis, the data show that the last week of October offers peak buyer conditions.
• Finally, as election day nears and voting gets underway, a Realtor.com survey found that nearly a quarter of U.S. adults say that politics influence where they choose to live. Furthermore, as candidates attempt to sway voter opinions, a Realtor.com analysis of home shopping trends and prior election results highlights the importance of the movement of people in reshaping the electoral map. 
• The analysis found that 31 states are likely to shift redder or bluer as a result of population adjustments including 5 crucial swing states. Neither people nor opinions are fixed and both are likely to factor into this year’s election results.
• You’ll find all the details including full reports and our housing data for download at realtor.com/research. You can also follow us on X (formerly twitter) for real time updates. And now instagram @realtordotcomecon for graphics.

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT:

• I’m Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com®. And here’s what you need to know about the economy and housing market this week!
• Data continue to underscore the resilience of the U.S. economy. Retail sales ticked up, highlighting the willingness of consumers to spend while jobless claims remain low, pointing to favorable conditions for workers.
• With little change in the economic picture, 10-year yields continue to hover around 4%. But mortgage rates extended last week’s surge as investors calibrated for the stronger jobs and inflation data. The 30-year fixed climbed to 6.44%–its highest in roughly 2 months.  
• Mortgage applications for home purchases took a step back in the face of higher rates, but remained above year ago pace for a 4th straight week, indicating some improvement in homebuyer demand. 
• In fact, homebuilder confidence bumped higher in October for a second month as builders reported improvements in current and expected sales conditions. 
• A better outlook helped drive single-family home permits to a 5-month high even though total permits fell. Importantly, total housing completions were up nearly 15% from a year ago with gains in both single- and multi-family–meaning more move-in ready options for both home shoppers and renters.
• The increase in multi-family supply helped hold rents back. A Realtor.com report found that rents dipped by half a percent from a year ago overall. Nationally, rents are not far off peak-level, but regional trends vary with big cities and the Midwest generally seeing gains while rents are softer in the South.
• In fact, rents in New York City continued to climb overall and in all boroughs other than Manhattan.
• In the for-sale housing market, weekly data from Realtor.com generally showed more steadiness. Of note, home prices were flat after 16 weeks of mild declines. But time on market and active listings were very similar to last week. The new listings data saw a surprising dip that we’re investigating further, but it seems likely that Hurricane Milton disrupted new listing activity in many areas.
• The seasonal best time to buy has passed nationwide, but conditions are still relatively favorable for buyers. Further, in Seattle, next week is the best week while in several major markets, including Los Angeles, Houston, and Minneapolis, the data show that the last week of October offers peak buyer conditions.
• Finally, as election day nears and voting gets underway, a Realtor.com survey found that nearly a quarter of U.S. adults say that politics influence where they choose to live. Furthermore, as candidates attempt to sway voter opinions, a Realtor.com analysis of home shopping trends and prior election results highlights the importance of the movement of people in reshaping the electoral map. 
• The analysis found that 31 states are likely to shift redder or bluer as a result of population adjustments including 5 crucial swing states. Neither people nor opinions are fixed and both are likely to factor into this year’s election results. 
• You’ll find all the details including full reports and our housing data for download at realtor.com/research.  You can also follow us on X (formerly twitter) for real time updates. And now instagram @realtordotcomecon for graphics.

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