Who’s More Likely to Miss 2024 NBA Playoffs, LA Lakers or Golden State Warriors? 0 of 9
LeBron James and Stephen Curry Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Two of the NBA’s marquee franchises (and the legends who lead them) are in real danger of missing the 2024 playoffs.
According to Basketball Reference’s Playoff Probabilities Report, Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors have a 48.6 percent chance to get in, while LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers are at 32.3 percent.
Right now, L.A.’s in ninth place in the standings. Golden State is in 10th. In other words, together, they comprise the bottom half of the play-in tournament. If the season ended today, they’d face each other in an elimination game.
Of course, it doesn’t. There’s still about two months to go. And if these teams stay hot (the Lakers are 8-3 in their past 11, while the Warriors are 8-2 in their past 10), they might creep into more favorable spots in the standings.
As both prepare for stretch runs that could help define the next eras for these franchises (where do they go from here if their aging superstars miss the playoffs?), it’s time to make some predictions.
Between L.A. and Golden State, which team is more likely to miss the 2024 postseason?
How the Lakers Got Here 1 of 9
LeBron James and Anthony Davis Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
LeBron just turned 39. The second-best player on his team, Anthony Davis, has long struggled with availability and injuries. The fact that the former has missed seven games, while the latter has only missed four is remarkable.
And if you’d told just about any Lakers fan or analyst how healthy the top two players on the roster would be through mid-February, they surely would’ve guessed L.A. would be above the play-in range in the standings.
But coach Darvin Ham’s overreliance on Taurean Prince (who’s torpedoed the team’s net rating this season), his hesitance to trust some of last year’s playoff heroes (like Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura), a slow start to the season from Reaves, inconsistency from D’Angelo Russell and a handful of injuries to supporting players had the team below .500 for much of this campaign.
So, in spite of the recent hot stretch and LeBron and AD playing like top-10 to -15 players all season, the Lakers find themselves in real danger of sitting out the postseason.
How the Warriors Got Here 2 of 9
Draymond Green, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images
After a 6-2 start to the season, the Warriors fell into a tailspin that lasted almost three months.
From November 8 to January 27, Golden State went 13-22, survived multiple suspensions to Draymond Green (who’d choked Rudy Gobert and smacked Jusuf Nurkić), lost Chris Paul to a hand injury, played through Klay Thompson’s age- and injury-related decline and dealt with the tragic loss of assistant coach Dejan Milojević.
Like the Lakers, though, Golden State seems to have emerged from its struggles. Green has been far more impactful since returning from the second suspension. Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski have emerged as dynamic young contributors. Curry is playing like a bona fide MVP contender again (even relative to the absurd statlines of players like Nikola Jokić, Luka Dončić and Giannis Antetokounmpo).
But the rough stretch still has the Warriors in 10th place and 1.5 games back of L.A. Getting out of the back half of the play-in tournament will take a scorching finish to the season. They’ve probably doomed themselves to an elimination game in April, but they’ve also inspired some confidence they can survive that.
Lakers’ Reason For Hope 3 of 9
Rui Hachimura Alex Goodlett/Getty Images
As mentioned, the Lakers’ two best players have been available for the overwhelming majority of the season, and both are playing at an All-NBA level. That, of course, is the biggest reason for hope (assuming the good health continues).
But the real catalyst for the team’s recent upswing (or at least the biggest difference between now and the early season struggles) is the emergence of some of the younger players.
During this 8-3 stretch, Reaves is averaging 19.5 points, 6.6 assists, 4.2 free throws and 2.5 threes with a 64.7 true shooting percentage.
If you stretch back a little further, Russell is averaging 23.4 points, 6.9 assists and 4.0 threes while shooting 46.0 percent from deep over his past 16 appearances.
And Hachimura, who finally seems like a fixture in the starting lineup, has put up 12.5 points while shooting 44.4 percent from three since the calendar flipped to 2024.
There’s certainly a possibility that all three just happened to hit unsustainable hot streaks around the same time. If two or all three come back to earth a bit, L.A. might be stuck in ninth or 10th place.
But there’s also a chance Ham finally realized he needs to give more consistent minutes to the players who make the most sense alongside LeBron and Davis (a novel concept, for sure). These three can shoot. Having them all on the floor spreads a defense out and makes life easier for everyone in a Lakers uniform.
For the entire season, L.A. is plus-9.3 points per 100 possessions when Reaves, Hachimura and Russell are all on the floor, and 49.0 percent of that trio’s total minutes together have come since the start of this 8-3 run.
Warriors Hope 4 of 9
Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga Dylan Buell/Getty Images
Like L.A., Golden State has had some younger players emerge in recent weeks. But their up-and-comers aren’t just young relative to the stars already on the roster. Podziemski turns 21 this month, and Kuminga just passed that mark in October.
For the entire season, the Warriors are plus-5.7 points per 100 possessions when both are on the floor. And Green’s suspension and injuries to CP3 and Gary Payton II sort of forced coach Steve Kerr’s hand to play them more during the team’s resurgence.
Over his past nine games, Podziemski is averaging a well-rounded 12.8 points, 7.3 rebounds, 6.7 assists and 1.3 threes while shooting 40.0 percent from deep. Over Kuminga’s past 16 appearances, he’s putting up 21.6 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.7 assists while shooting 57.9 percent from the field and 44.1 percent from three.
Neither is doing things that seem unsustainable. There’s less evidence of the downside with these two as there is with Russell, Reaves and Hachimura (all of whom have shakier, yearslong track records). Twenty-one-year-olds being on the way up is far from surprising.
Something of a plateau wouldn’t be shocking either, but they’re absolutely on the right side of the developmental curve.
Ultimately, though, what their breakouts have facilitated is a return to supernova form for Curry, and he’s the ultimate reason for hope for this organization.
Over his past 12 games, Curry is averaging 32.3 points, 6.7 threes (!) and 5.3 assists while shooting 47.1 percent from three.
That kind of production probably is unsustainable, but even if Curry can maintain even around 90 percent of that output, and Podziemski and Kuminga continue their ascents, it’ll be tough to deny the Warriors a playoff spot.
Lakers’ Cause for Concern Concern 5 of 9
Anthony Davis and LeBron James Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images
LeBron averaged 55.6 appearances per season over the five years immediately prior to this one. AD was right at 50 per year over the same stretch.
Potential absences for either or both could sink the team’s playoff hopes. L.A.’s minus-5.4 points per 100 possessions when both are off the floor.
But that’s not the only reason to be nervous.
Russell’s career three-point percentage is 36.7. There’s certainly a chance he cools off. Hachimura’s is 35.8. Those numbers are good, but they’re not the kind of percentages that can transform an offense. That kind of impact comes from shooting the way they have over the past couple weeks.
A funk isn’t out of the question for Reaves either, but the bigger concern there is on the other end. For the season, the Lakers have surrendered a whopping 7.3 more points per 100 possessions when Reaves is on the floor.
If that scares Ham into reupping the minutes of Prince, the offense could tank again (it was 20th in points per 100 possessions prior to the past 11 games). It’ll be a tricky balancing act.
Warriors’ Cause for Concern 6 of 9
Klay Thompson Alex Goodlett/Getty Images
Klay’s acknowledgement or acceptance of the fact that he’s now in a different phase of his career has been an almost constant topic of conversation for the Warriors this season.
His 37.3 three-point percentage is a career low. His 17.3 points is his lowest scoring average since 2012-13. Perhaps most concerning is that the Warriors are minus-1.3 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor and plus-6.2 when he’s off.
If he settles into a reserve role (he dropped 35 off the bench in Golden State’s last game before the All-Star break), the Warriors could be in pretty good shape. But that’ll be a tough sell for a four-time champion with over 700 career starts and the fifth-most made threes in NBA history (regular and postseason combined).
Of course, heaping all of the concern on Klay isn’t fair. He isn’t the sole reason this team is in 10th place. Draymond’s suspensions hurt, and some of his unpunished gestures from the Warriors’ loss to the Clippers suggest he might go over the line again before the season ends. Podziemski and Kuminga are on their way up, but they’re not immune to growing pains. And though CP3 could be back soon, he turns 39 in May and has struggled to consistently stay on the floor for years.
Potential Lakers vs. Warriors Play-in Matchup? 7 of 9
Stephen Curry and LeBron James Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images
Again, if the season ended today, these two teams would face each other in the opening play-in game.
And, really, the chances of either moving out of ninth or 10th don’t seem terribly high. There’s a decent cushion between the Lakers and eighth place. There’s one between the Warriors and 11th, too.
According to the Playoff Probabilities Report, Golden State has a 55.3 percent chance to finish either ninth or 10th. L.A. is at 61.0.
Steph and LeBron could very well be on another collision course. Based on the double-overtime showdown they had in late January, a play-in game with both could be a blast.
Who’s More Likely To Miss the Playoffs? 8 of 9
LeBron James Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images
Of course, if those two teams do meet in the 9-10 play-in game, the loser will automatically be ousted from the playoffs.
Given the fact that L.A. is 1-0 against the Warriors this season and coming off a series win over them in the 2023 playoffs, it’s tempting to pick the Lakers in that scenario.
But even if Basketball Reference’s model anticipates those two teams finishing ninth and 10th, there’s still a lot of season left to play. There are three more matchups between the two before the playoffs.
A lot can change.
Though the team has gone through several shifts and changes over the past decade, the core of the Warriors’ dynasty–Curry, Green, Thompson and Kerr—remains in place. It won a title more recently than the Lakers (who only have LeBron and AD left from that 2020 team). And the literal and figurative arrivals of Podziemski and Kuminga put Golden State over the top.
If forced to pick today, the Lakers feel ever-so-slightly more likely to miss the 2024 postseason.
Who Ya (Don’t) Got? 9 of 9
Stephen Curry Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images
Of course, there are plenty of reasonable arguments to make in the other direction.
Some of you are probably making them right now.
Feel free to voice your opinion in the poll and comments section below!
Andy Bailey @AndrewDBailey Which team is more likely to MISS the 2024 NBA playoffs?
